Pace Makes the Race

Horseracing Betting Lines

05/06/2008 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Officially, Big Brown won the Kentucky Derby in 2:01 4/5 for the mile and one quarter. Unofficially, the race was over after 47 seconds.

That was how long it took Bob Black Jack to run the first half-mile, with Big Brown sitting only 2 1/2 lengths behind. It was the fourth slowest first-half mile the last 25 years the Derby has been contested on fast tracks. Not only that, the Churchill Downs strip was a cement highway all afternoon, so in reality, Bob Black Jack led the field into what could easily have amounted to a 48 and change first half. Given that, there was absolutely NO WAY any horse was going to come off the pace to win this race.

It's also interesting to note the four horses that were within four lengths of the lead at the half ended up finishing first, second, fourth and fifth. The only other runner to receive a share of the purse was Denis of Cork, who closed from 20th early on to get up for third.

There was a strong headwind through the stretch, which may have stunted the first quarter from being faster, but the wind should not have been a factor for the second quarter, which went in a rather slow 23 4/5.

Take nothing away from Big Brown. What he accomplished will go down as one of the most impressive feats in Kentucky Derby history.

In retrospect, it was a brilliant move on Rick Dutrow's part -- grabbing post 20. Not only did his horse not get dirt kicked in his face, he removed any possibility of Big Brown being pinched at the break by a horse that had no business being in the race, a fate that spoiled the chances of the second and third favorites.

Once Z Humor, the longest shot on the board at 63-1, crossed over into Colonel John and Pyro at the start, it allowed Big Brown the gigantic opportunity to be unchallenged by any "decent" colt throughout the entire race. The filly, Eight Belles, ran huge to hold the second spot, but tragedy stuck the racing world once again on one of its biggest days as both her front ankles snapped after the race and she had to be euthanized.

WHY THE SLOW PACE?

Andy Beyer, of Beyer numbers fame, had gone on record prior to the post position draw to say the early pace in the Kentucky Derby might not be as fast as one would think after War Pass was injured and declared out the race. Additionally, the main speed, Bob Black Jack, would not try to run suicidal early fractions since he didn't have the pedigree to get the 1 1/4 miles.

Beyer also pointed out that Big Brown did not need to be on the lead to win the race and for the most part, the rest of the bunch were mediocre horses in a terrible crop. He was dead on.

After the posts were drawn, there were two schools of thought on how fast (or slow) the early pace in the Kentucky Derby would be.

The first scenario painted a bleak picture for the closers. After watching the earlier races at Churchill Downs that day, it was almost impossible for horses to gain ground on what was an unbelievably fast track. Not a single horse that wasn't within five lengths of the leader at the half hit the board in the first six dirt races. The first half-mile in those half-dozen events were all run between 43 2/5 and 45 1/5, and the only two-turn race prior to the Derby saw a bunch of maiden three-year-olds hit the half in 46 4/5, one tick faster than Bob Black Jack. Suffice to say, this was not a great day to be a come- from-behind horse.

The second setting contradicted the first. With over 70% of the early speed in the Derby coming directly from the outside, there was no way in the world these horses would "take it easy" on the front end.

The first instinct is usually the correct one.

What's interesting to note is that of the seven so-called speed horses, one ended up taking the lead, while five of the other six were second, third, fourth, sixth and seventh at the half. In essence, the race ran according to plan. In addition, seven of the first 10 horses at the six-furlong mark remained in the top 10 at the wire.

So how did Bob Black Jack get away with a 23 4/5 second quarter that sealed the fate of almost every single horse?

The expected speed duel never developed, as Richard Migliore's charge was clear by a length from the quarter to the half, enabling the "Mig" to nurse "Black Jack's" speed. Also, Gayego broke a bit sluggishly out of the gate and Mike Smith even had to pull back the reins after that horrendous start to keep him in the clear. The fact that no one pressed Bob Black Jack, along with Gayego's poor beginning, allowed him to go unchallenged.

Early positioning was the key as the top nine horses at the start were the same nine that were racing first through ninth as the field hit six furlongs in 1:11 flat. It's an obvious fact that the slower the pace, the harder it will be for the closers to close and that's exactly what happened at Churchill.

BIG BROWN = TRIPLE CROWN?

One cannot put into words how phenomenal Big Brown could be. Winning the Derby from post 20 in just his fourth career start is an extraordinary achievement. His acceleration through the stretch was outstanding and with two more victories over the next five weeks, Big Brown will join Seattle Slew as the only undefeated Triple Crown winners in the history of the sport.

However, let's not get ahead of ourselves. Sure it was a remarkable showing, but how much of this win can be attributed to A) Big Brown being a superstar or B) sincere lack of competition? At this stage of his career, he does have the ability to improve, so I would venture to give Big Brown the benefit of the doubt. But, there is still a major point of contention when the conversation turns to the other 19 horses, and if all the initial reports are true that not one horse that ran behind Big Brown will enter the Preakness then one has to assume that the answer is clearly "B."

Another indication this crop of three-year-old colts is on the weak side is summed up in two words: Eight Belles.

It's extremely rare for a filly to step into the male dominated Derby scene and come through with flying, or should I say, "Winning Colors." Only three have ever won the race and they all had either defeated or finished in the money against the colts. For Eight Belles to knock off 18 males, one would have to guess that she was either on par with 1980 Derby winner Genuine Risk, which is highly debatable, or it speaks volumes about the rest of the field, the more appropriate answer.

Regardless of how she would match up to the likes of Genuine Risk, or even 1988 champ Winning Colors, any racing fan has to be torn and shaken over the immediate events that took place shortly after the race. Larry Jones was coming off a major high with Proud Spell's victory in the Kentucky Oaks just one day earlier and now must have to deal with reporters questioning him about placing his filly against the boys.

Ironically, Terlingua, one of the fastest fillies of all time, had to be euthanized at the age of 32 earlier just last week. The dam of Storm Cat, one of racing's most influential sires, had won a pair of stakes racing against the colts as a two-year-old back in 1978.

IMPRESSIVE IN DEFEAT

Exactly 10 horses, half the field, improved their racing positions from the half-mile (47 flat) to the mile (1:36 2/5). One, of course, was Big Brown, who gained 2 1/2 lengths over that span. Seven others picked up anywhere from one to 3 1/2 lengths and they included Visionaire, Pyro, Recapturetheglory, Anak Nakal, Eight Belles, Tale of Ekati and Smooth Air.

However, only two other horses, outside of the top two finishers, ran exceptionally well, considering they had to challenge not only 18 other horses, but confront the slow pace of the race.

Denis of Cork benefited from a tremendous ground saving ride from Calvin Borel to close from last place to 13th during the middle stages, picking up a whopping 10 lengths in the process. Unfortunately, his move wasn't visually impressive since he was too far back at the start. He does, however, receive high marks for finishing third racing against the track bias. Even so, he was by no means the third best horse in the race. That distinction goes to Colonel John, the only horse that picked off more than 10 lengths on the leader while passing 11 horses from the backstretch to the top of the lane.

It's a shame what happened to Eoin Harty's colt at the start because he was by far the most talented, unluckiest horse in the Derby. As previously mentioned, once the "Colonel" got slammed at the start (and then interfered with again by Z Humor moments later) and had to settle some 10 lengths further back than usual, the odds of hitting the board were extremely remote. If the pace had been quicker, he could have won, but when the half came up in 47, his fate was sealed.

I advise all my readers to watch the race replay on kentuckyderby.com as opposed to the NBC feed, which pretty much panned the leaders for much of the race, rather than showing a wider angle to include most of the field. Then, and only then, will you notice just one horse making up any sort of ground. Unfortunately, Colonel John's momentum carried him about seven wide at the head of the stretch and he couldn't sustain his elongated bid after running his heart out trying to overcompensate his poor start.

Harty, who will keep the "Colonel" in Kentucky before deciding on his next race, said after the Derby, "He took the worst of it coming out of the gate. You usually expect all the crowding going into the first turn, not two jumps out of the gate. I thought he ran well considering all the trouble he had."

He went on to add that a trip to Baltimore for the Preakness is highly unlikely.

Here's a message for you Eoin, "BRING THIS HORSE TO PIMLICO!"

If he rebounds from the Derby in good order and is eating well and acting as if he wants to run, there is no reason not to challenge Big Brown again. Sure, coming back in two weeks will be tough, but the Derby winner will have to do the same. Plus, Dutrow is not as confident as he was heading into the Derby, citing the short two-week break and the hard surface at Pimlico. Colonel John ran exceptionally well considering the trip and should do even better in a smaller field.

NO FIREWORKS FOR PYRO

What happened to Pyro? Why didn't he ever get a call during the race? The Louisiana Derby winner and third choice in the wagering did improve his positioning from 18th after three-quarters of a mile to eighth place at the wire, but he was never a factor, even losing three lengths to the leader over his final four furlongs. Nonetheless, his race was compromised at the start, as he incurred the same fate as Colonel John. Pyro also raced about seven wide at the top of the stretch causing him to lose tons of valuable ground.

If one doesn't understand the importance of saving ground, check out the plight of Pyro as compared to Denis of Cork. Both were on even terms around the final turn, but the former was in the seven or eight path, while the latter stayed close to the inside. Guess which horse finished 6 3/4 lengths ahead of the other?

Denis of Cork ran a credible third, despite having to cross over to the inside from post 16 at the break. His connections knew he was sitting on a huge effort and they received it with a check for $200,000. On the other hand, Pyro finished a non-threatening eighth, beaten 15 lengths.

SIGNALING A CHANGE?

A former Daily Racing Form colleague of mine mentioned to me right after the race how Big Brown's victory could impact the game for the worse. He went on to say the prep races in the spring might be rendered meaningless in the years to come if all it takes to win the Derby is a maiden win, a first-place finish in a non-winners of one allowance, and one successful stakes score. Even Denis of Cork came into the race with just four past performances and hit the board!

There may be some truth in this since horsemen have been prone to run their charges less and less as the years have gone by. For the longest time, it was virtually impossible for a horse to win the Derby coming off a five-week layoff. It wasn't as if it couldn't be done; it just never entered a trainer's mindset to have such a huge gap in between races. Now all of a sudden, it's happened twice the last three years with Barbaro and Big Brown. In addition, the last two winners, Street Sense and Big Brown, have had just two preps prior to the Run for the Roses.

Despite the two races, one in March and the other in April, Street Sense did have a strong foundation with seven career starts before setting foot in Louisville as a three-year-old. Barbaro (five lifetime races) and Big Brown (three) were able to score huge victories at Churchill Downs, but did so mainly in part to extremely weak competition.

What does all this mean? It proves that any horse with tremendous ability and breeding can forego the traditional spring prep races if the horses he's running against are tremendously inferior. Only time will tell how next year will evolve.

POSSIBLE PREAKNESS FIELD

As of Tuesday morning, only one horse that ran in the Derby has been mentioned as a possible starter to knock heads with Big Brown. Recapturetheglory, the fifth-place finisher, originally was expected to run, but his connections are on the fence about coming back to the races without much rest. If I had to make an educated guess, I would say trainer Louie Roussel will give him a much-deserved vacation and not bring him to Baltimore.

So who will challenge the Kentucky Derby winner in the Preakness? Many names have been mentioned, including another undefeated colt named Harlem Rocker. After his smashing victory in the Withers, trainer Todd Pletcher announced that he would point the horse to the Canadian Triple Crown, but with Cowboy Cal off the American Triple Crown trail and Monba's 20th-place finish, he might have a quick change of heart. In addition, the horse is owned by Frank Stronach, who incidentally owns Pimlico, so expect Harlem Rocker to come forward and challenge Big Brown.

Pletcher could also send Lexington winner Behindatthebar to the Preakness, giving him another pair of horses to battle the Derby winner. Maybe he'll have better luck in the middle jewel since he has now finished dead last three straight years in the Derby.

Five others are probable for the race: Kentucky Bear and Stevril, the third and fourth place finishers in the Blue Grass; Tres Borrachos, the show horse in the Arkansas Derby; Yankee Bravo, a recent fourth in the Santa Anita Derby; and Giant Moon, fourth in the Wood Memorial.

If Recapturetheglory doesn't run, only two of the remaining seven, Tres Borrachos and Giant Moon, have shown flashes of speed so the pace might not be too quick.

Big Brown should be the heavy favorite in the Preakness, especially since Barbaro was 1-2 in 2006. But there are no sure things in horse racing.

Everyone by now knows what happened to Barbaro, but not many knew of Bernardini prior to the race. The Tom Albertrani-trained colt had previously won the Withers in his third lifetime start (just like Harlem Rocker), and ended up dominating the rest of the field, winning by 5 1/4 lengths. Not many folks had thought Barbaro could lose the Preakness, and yes, an injury might have been his demise, but even if he hadn't gotten hurt, he still might not have defeated the eventual winner that day.

Just some food for thought since everyone is in the process of anointing Big Brown as the new "King of the Turf." He may very well be the second coming of Seattle Slew, but he's still only one-third of the way there.