Carpenter, Cards try to avoid three-game sweep at Wrigley

Baseball Betting Lines

07/25/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Chris Carpenter goes after win No. 12 this evening when the St. Louis Cardinals try to avoid a three-game sweep at the hands of the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field.

Carpenter won his second straight start on Tuesday against Philadelphia, as he held the Phillies to a run and five hits in eight innings to run his record to 11-3 on the year, while lowering his earned run average to 3.05.

"I had good command of my sinker-ball near the bottom of the strike zone," said Carpenter of his dominant outing. "I also threw some good curveballs and kept them off- balanced."

Carpenter, who has allowed just two earned runs in his last two starts spanning 16 innings, beat the Cubs the last time he faced them and is 10-3 lifetime against them with a 2.73 ERA in 18 starts.

The Cubs made it two straight over the Cards on Saturday, as Tyler Colvin and Starlin Castro homered to support six solid innings from Tom Gorzelanny, as Chicago eked out a 6-5 win.

Castro finished with three hits, two runs scored and two runs batted in, while Colvin scored twice and walked for Chicago, which has won the first two games over their rivals to claim its first series against a division foe in 11 tries.

A win on Sunday would give the Cubs their first home sweep of the Cards since turning the trick in a four-game set from July 27-30, 2006. Chicago also had a three-game sweep at home over the Cards earlier in that season.

Gorzelanny (6-5) earned the win after allowing three runs on seven hits while walking three and fanning three for Chicago, which has claimed a series over a division foe for the first time in 11 tries. Carlos Marmol set down the Redbirds in the ninth to record his 18th save.

Blake Hawksworth (4-6) suffered the loss after allowing six runs -- five earned -- on seven hits over 4 1/3 innings while walking three and fanning four for the Cardinals, who have dropped three straight.

"The amount of pitches I'm throwing is just too many," said Hawksworth. "I'm just not locating the ball, especially my fastball. I'm falling behind guys and just throwing too many pitches. That's the factor right now, it's not the home runs, just my location is off."

Chicago, meanwhile, will pin its hopes tonight on righty Ryan Dempster, who is 8-7 with a 3.70 ERA. Dempster is unbeaten in his last three starts, but did not get a decision on Tuesday against Houston, which managed seven runs (four earned) and eight hits in five innings of his team's 14-7 win.

Dempster was hit hard by the Cards back on May 30 for six runs in 6 2/3 innings and is 6-7 in 42 games against them with a 4.55 ERA.

St. Louis took two of three from the Cubs earlier in the season at Wrigley.

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Pacific-10 Conference odds

Teams that should be in: Stanford

Oregon and USC get their tickets punched after taking care of business this weekend. Yes, the Trojans' computer numbers aren't great, but there's no way the third-place team in this league is getting nixed. Grudgingly, I added Arizona after consultation with our Bracketologist. I don't know that Arizona will lose its last three (including a Pac-10 quarterfinal game), and even if the Cats do, I still can't see how they'd be left out, given the overall profile. That said, it bears watching, as three more L's would leave them at 18-12 (9-9) and on a 6-11 skid entering the Dance. It would be nice to see the Wildcats get at least one W in the Bay Area next week, as Cincinnati (albeit without Armein Kirkland and with a worse profile) was axed after a similar slide last season. I just couldn't rationalize having some of the other teams as locks and not having Arizona in that category -- there just aren't enough good teams behind the Cats to threaten their spot, it seems. Stanford has its fate in its own hands with the Arizona schools coming to the Farm to close out the regular season next weekend.

Should be in:

Stanford [17-10 (9-7), RPI: 40, SOS: 21] No shame in not getting a win in L.A., but that makes the home game against Arizona State a must-win ahead of what could be an intriguing meeting with Arizona should the Cats lose at Cal. Getting to 11 Pac-10 wins would make Selection Sunday much more comfortable, but 10's probably more than enough this season. The Cardinal have nonconference wins over Texas Tech and at Virginia to lean on, although they also lost badly to Air Force and Santa Clara at home.

Southeastern Conference odds
Work left to do: Alabama, Georgia, Mississippi, Mississippi State

It looks more and more possible that no one from the SEC West will make the NCAAs. How weird is that? Tennessee and Vandy move into the locks category after more good work this weekend. Kentucky stays there, although it would be smart for the Cats to handle Georgia at home Wednesday ahead of a trip to the Swamp. Could a disaster scenario (two more L's and a first-round SEC tourney exit) somehow dislodge the Cats despite their incredible computer numbers? Still unlikely, but not worth chancing it.

Work left to do:

Alabama [19-9 (6-8), RPI: 43, SOS: 47] The tough L at Tennessee was understandable, and even created some hope. Unfortunately, that hope was dashed by a home loss to Auburn, which leaves the Tide in some real trouble. There's still no signature win on the profile (no, Kentucky doesn't count), and the computer profile is weakening rapidly. The Tide conceivably could beat Ole Miss and win at Miss. State to get to 8-8 and clinch at least a share of the West crown, but that's probably not enough right now. The Tide will need to do some work in the SEC tourney.

Georgia [16-10 (8-6), RPI: 52, SOS: 23] This is the team with the best chance to make it from this section right now. The Bulldogs rebounded from a terrible performance at Ole Miss to beat down Miss. State. Now they are at Kentucky (king of the RPI 51-100 win) and home to Tennessee. That would be worth a lot of computer points to get both (which is doable), as both teams are in the top 11 in RPI. Finishing at least 9-7 is an absolute must, and I would feel much better about the Dawgs' chances if they got both to get to 10 SEC wins. They also beat Gonzaga, but lost to ACC bubblers Georgia Tech and Clemson.

Mississippi [18-10 (7-7), RPI: 63, SOS: 79] Like everyone else in this division, Ole Miss gacked up a chance to stake a claim, losing by double figures at South Carolina. Even 9-7 likely is not nearly enough with a nonconference profile devoid of anything notable.

Mississippi State [16-11 (7-7), RPI: 66, SOS: 37] With a chance to get in the mix, these Bulldogs were leashed by their Georgia counterparts. Could they get to 9-7? I guess -- although winning at Arkansas, then beating Alabama is no lock -- but would that mean all that much for a team with this overall profile? Probably not. There's nothing of note (on the good side) in the nonconference profile.

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