Title game helps Southland seize national spotlight

NCAA Football Betting Lines

07/28/2010 - Frisco, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - For the first time in 14 years, the FCS national championship game will not run through Chattanooga, Tennessee. Understandably, people aren't pleased in Chattanooga. "It's hard to believe that the NCAA would walk away from 13 years of solid game experience to start over, regardless of the site," said Scott Smith, president of the Greater Chattanooga Sports and Events Committee.

The site Smith refers to is Pizza Hut Park in Frisco, Texas. The stadium, which is home to Major League Soccer's FC Dallas, has a capacity of 23,500. The city, which was recently named the nation's fastest-growing city by the U.S. Census Bureau, is the home of the FCS' Southland Conference. Folks around the league, as you might imagine, are pleased.

"It's certainly an honor for our conference to be one of the hosts for the FCS championship game," says McNeese State head coach Matt Viator. "Since I have been here we have played in one championship game and it was a great experience. I know that everyone connected with our football program feels a bit of pride in our conference's hosting roll this coming season."

The game Viator is referring to is the 2002 FCS championship game between Western Kentucky and McNeese State. McNeese lost 33-14, but the coach still recalls the experience fondly.

In 2010, with the road to the FCS championship running through their backyard, will any team in the Southland prove capable of representing its conference on the division's largest stage?

In both the media and coaches polls released today, Stephen F. Austin has been established as the favorite. SFA, the reigning Southland Conference co- champion, received seven of eight first-place votes in both polls. The Lumberjacks advanced to the second round of the playoffs last year, before suffering a severe 51-0 defeat to eventual FCS runner-up Montana.

Speaking on SFA's status as team to beat in the Southland, head coach J.C. Harper refers to incumbent stars Jeremy Moses and Jabara Williams as reasons for self-assurance. "When you start with two guys like that on both sides of the ball, we welcome it all," says Harper.

Also on Wednesday, Moses and Williams were both announced as 2010 Preseason All-Southland Conference First-Team members. The quarterback and linebacker, respectively, would seem to represent the Southland's best shot at taking home a national award in Frisco this January.

In a conference rife with parity, McNeese State proved to be the only other team worthy of a first-place vote in the polls, receiving one vote in both the media and coaches preseason polls. In 2009, McNeese lost only one conference game; a tough 16-13 decision against Stephen F. Austin. As with SFA, McNeese reached the playoffs, falling in the first round to New Hampshire.

MSU returns 15 of its starters in 2010, including 2009 Southland Conference freshman of the year Malcolm Bronson. Bronson heads a defensive backfield which placed three players on the 2010 Preseason All-Southland Conference First-Team. Along with Bronson, defensive backs Darrell Jenkins and Seth Thomas were also selected. In all, McNeese State had a conference-leading 14 selections.

Stephen F. Austin and McNeese State represent the Southland's best chance to capitalize on a unique opportunity. To host one of their own in the FCS championship game would be dream scenario for the Southland. Both teams will have to significantly improve their playoff performances from a year ago. Both teams will have to survive tough competition within the conference itself. Both teams will have to rely upon returning veteran leadership. Both teams, in reality, will need a little bit of luck.

Stephen F. Austin head coach J. C. Harper is aware. Speaking about championship aspirations, the coach says, "My dad always told me, 'If you're going to win a championship, you've got to be a little lucky.'"

It took a lot of hard work and a little bit of luck to get the FCS championship game moved to Frisco. Maybe adherence to the same formula will result in another victory of sorts for the Southland.

SOUTHLAND CONFERENCE PRESEASON POLL (Coaches)

1. Stephen F. Austin (7 first-place votes), 49 points;

2. McNeese State (1), 43;

3. (tie) Southeastern Louisiana, 29;

3. (tie) Texas State, 29;

5. Central Arkansas, 27;

6. Northwestern State, 20;

7. Sam Houston State, 18;

8. Nicholls, 9

SOUTHLAND CONFERENCE PRESEASON POLL (Media)

1. Stephen F. Austin (7 first-place votes), 49 points;

2. McNeese State (1), 40;

3. Southeastern Louisiana, 35;

4. Texas State, 31;

5. Central Arkansas, 29;

6. Sam Houston State, 16;

7. Nicholls, 13;

8. Northwestern State, 11

2010 PRESEASON ALL-SOUTHLAND CONFERENCE TEAMS

First-Team Offense

QB- Jeremy Moses, Stephen F. Austin; RB- Champlain Babin, McNeese State; RB- Jackie Hinton, Central Arkansas; FB/HB- Rico Moss, Central Arkansas; WR- Da'Marcus Griggs, Texas State; WR- Willie Landers, Central Arkansas; TE- Simmie Yarborough, Southeastern Louisiana; OL- D. J. Hall, Texas State; OL- Miguel Gauthreaux, McNeese State; OL- Austin Emerson, Central Arkansas; OL- Michael Booker, Northwestern State; OL- Jonothan Landry, McNeese State

First-Team Defense

DL- Desmund Lighten, McNeese State; DL- Markell Carter, Central Arkansas; DL- Kenneth Charles, Stephen F. Austin; DL- Sean Warren, Stephen F. Austin; LB- Jabara Williams, Stephen F. Austin; LB- Mark Newbill, Southeastern Louisiana; DB- Re'Keem Wilson, Southeastern Louisiana; DB- Malcolm Bronson, McNeese State; DB- Darrell Jenkins, McNeese State; DB- Seth Thomas, McNeese State; DB- Tommy Connors, Southeastern Louisiana

First-Team Specialists

PK- Eddie Carmona, Central Arkansas; P- Patrick Dolan, Nicholls; RS- Gralyn Crawford, Stephen F. Austin

Second-Team Offense

QB- Paul Harris, Northwestern State; RB- Zeke Jones, Southeastern Louisiana; RB- Romonte Hampton, Stephen F. Austin; FB/HB- Gralyn Crawford, Stephen F. Austin; WR- Daren Dillard, Texas State; WR- Chris Royal, McNeese State; TE- Corday Clark, McNeese State; OL- Kevin Hughes, Southeastern Louisiana; OL- Taylor Johnson, McNeese State; OL- George Bias, Stephen F. Austin; OL- Zach Case, Northwestern State; OL- Brandon Ward, Nicholls

Second-Team Defense

DL- Terrance Freeman, McNeese State; DL- Devan Walker, Southeastern Louisiana; DL- Adley Eshraghipour, Texas State; DL- Josh Ellison, McNeese State; LB- Geremy Pilate, McNeese State; LB- Devin Ducote, Stephen F. Austin; DB- Bobby Felder, Nicholls; DB- Andre Banks, Stephen F. Austin; DB- Ford Smesny, McNeese State; DB- Henry Minor, Central Arkansas; DB- Marcus Clark, Texas State

Second-Team Specialists

PK/P- Drew Nelson, Stephen F. Austin; RS- Bradley Brown, Northwestern State

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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Michael Vick is back, Brett Favre isn't and the NFC East remains the best division in the NFC, maybe in all of football.

As players start to gather for the start of another season, some things change and some stay the same in the world of the NFL.

Bet 2010 Super Bowl Odds

The NFC East has been the dominant division in the National Conference for a while, despite limited playoff success, save for the New York Giants surprise Super Bowl win two seasons ago.

Hell, there's a generation of kids in Texas who have never seen the Cowboys win a playoff game (last win was in 1996).

But collectively, the Giants, Eagles, Cowboys and Redskins (well, maybe not so much the Redskins) are as good as a division gets in an NFC conference that has struggled to stay competitive with the AFC side.

Sports bettors have both acknowledged the NFC East's dominance, as one glance at the NFL future odds menu will show.

Looking over the NFL betting odds at online sports book MySportsbook.com we see the top three teams listed to win the NFC Championship are all from the NFC East:

Dallas Cowboys - 7 - 1

Philadelphia Eagles - 13 - 2

New York Giants - 9 - 2

Slotting in behind these three are two teams from the NFC North: the Minnesota Vikings (15-2) and the Chicago Bears (10-1).

Again, despite the lack of recent playoff success, the Dallas Cowboys are popular with the sports betting community, as they hold 14% of all the money wagered on who will win the NFC Championship.

So far, the New York Giants are the bettors' favorite to represent their conference in the Super Bowl, as they have 24% of the overall NFC Championship betting volume.

And what about the Philadelphia Eagles? For the most part, the Eagles had a very productive offseason, the kind that could bring them back to the top.

They had a good draft adding the likes of WR Jeremy Maclin and RB LeSean McCoy.

Unfortunately, the team received a blow when long-time defensive coordinator Jim Johnson passed away on Tuesday.

But this team will make a real run at the division title this year. Going into the regular season, Philly is listed at +240 to win the division.

Last season the Eagles were 9-6-1 SU and 10-6 ATS.

Teams from the NFC East will play teams from the AFC West in the regular season and the Eagles haven't really been a good bet in the last 20 games against the likes of San Diego, Oakland, K.C. and Denver, only going 8-12 ATS.

Two seasons removed from that Super Bowl title, the New York Giants see themselves listed as the odds-on favorite in NFC East championship futures at +162.

Plaxico Burress is gone and with him all the bad publicity surrounding the gun in the sweatpants incident, but can they replace him in the offense?

Last season the Giants were a very reliable bet going 12-4 ATS.

In the Giants' last 20 games against fellow teams from the NFC East; they are 13-7 ATS.

Dallas is listed at +240 to win the division.

Dallas went 9-7 SU and 7-9 ATS last season and with the amount of talent the Cowboys have, a similar performance won't do.

The Cowboys have been atrocious against divisional rivals, going 6-14 ATS in their last 20.

The Washington Redskins are longshots to win the division at +550.

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