New-look Astros seek sweep of struggling Brewers

Baseball Betting Lines

08/01/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Despite trading away two of their top players, the Houston Astros find themselves in position to do something they haven't done all season; win five games in a row.

The Astros will try to do just that this afternoon when they go for a three- game sweep of the Milwaukee Brewers at Minute Maid Park.

Currently 13 1/2 games out of first place in the National League Central, the Astros dealt ace Roy Oswalt to the Phillies on Thursday, then completed a deal yesterday to ship first baseman Lance Berkman to the Yankees.

Despite the new look, Houston has outscored its opponents 25-2 over its season high-tying win streak and hasn't allowed a run to the Brewers yet in this series. The Brewers took Friday's opener, 5-0, then scored a 6-0 triumph last night thanks to eight scoreless innings by Wandy Rodriguez.

Rodriguez scattered five hits and a walk while striking out nine. He is 6-1 over his last seven starts, allowing one earned run or less in five of those games.

"That's special because you know you're going to get a chance when you get a pitching performance like that," Astros manager Brad Mills said. "You're going to have a chance to win a ball game, and then to see the guys come through at the plate like that was very nice."

Angel Sanchez drove in two runs, while Chris Johnson, Jeff Keppinger, Jason Michaels and Michael Bourn each had an RBI. Johnson extended his hitting streak to 14 games, the longest by an Astros rookie since Julio Lugo's 14-game run in 2000.

With Berkman now in New York, the Astros recalled first baseman prospect Brett Wallace, acquired from Toronto on Thursday, but he went 0-for-4 in his major league debut.

While the Astros are rolling, the Brewers have now been held scoreless in their last 23 innings and are 0-for-19 with runners in scoring position in this series.

Dave Bush got rocked in five frames, giving up six runs on 10 hits for the Brewers, who have dropped four straight games.

"We just didn't make good at-bats at times," Brewers second baseman Rickie Weeks said. "That's what happens sometimes."

The Brewers and Astros split six games in Milwaukee earlier this year and Houston will try to sweep the Brewers for the first time since doing so at home in three games from May 2-4, 2008.

The Astros go for the sweep today behind Wesley Wright, with the 25-year-old set to make the third start of his career and first against a team other than the Cubs.

Wright began his career as a reliever with Houston in 2008 and even made his first six appearances this year out of the bullpen. He then earned that first start on July 20 in Chicago and gave up six runs, only one earned, over 4 2/3 innings of a no-decision.

The lefty faced the Cubs again on July 26 and took the loss, allowing four runs on eight hits over five innings of work, falling to 0-1 with a 5.12 earned run average this year.

Wright has faced the Brewers 14 times in relief, spanning 11 2/3 innings, and is 0-1 with a 3.09 ERA.

Coming off one of the worst outings of his career, Randy Wolf rebounded in a big way on Monday versus the Reds and he hopes to put forth another solid outing today.

The 33-year-old was blasted for a career-high 12 runs over 5 2/3 innings in a loss at Pittsburgh on July 21, but five days later he held the Reds to just a pair of runs on five hits over seven innings. Wolf did not get a decision in his team's 3-2 win however.

"It was a nightmare game," Wolf told Milwaukee's website, referring to his outing in Pittsburgh. "Those are the kind of games you try to put behind you. They're the kind of games where you could go out there and tell [the hitters] what was coming, and it would be better than it was. You can't lose sight of that."

Wolf is 7-9 with a 5.07 ERA this year and has faced the Astros once in 2010. The left-hander defeated them on May 25 with seven scoreless innings of four- hit ball, improving to 5-5 with a 3.63 ERA lifetime versus Houston.

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

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