Wainwright, Cards take act to the road in opener with Marlins

Baseball Betting Lines

08/06/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - St. Louis Cardinals starting pitcher Adam Wainwright owns a perfect mark at Busch Stadium this season. Now it's time for him to step up his road game when he takes the mound tonight in the opener of a three-game series against the Florida Marlins.

Wainwright is 11-0 through 12 starts in the Gateway City, but has just a 4-6 mark in 11 outings as the guest. He won his most recent trip to the hill last Sunday versus Pittsburgh, as he held the Pirates to one run in seven innings of a 9-1 drubbing. Wainwright improved to 15-6 in 23 overall starts and lowered his earned run average to 2.19. He's now trying to become the second 16-game winner in the major leagues, joining Colorado's Ubaldo Jimenez (17 wins).

The right-hander beat Florida back on May 20 at Busch Stadium, hurling seven innings of two-run ball in a 4-2 St. Louis victory. Wainwright is 3-1 with a 2.61 ERA in seven career meetings (five starts) with the Marlins.

St. Louis could use some additional help on the mound, despite salvaging the finale of a three-game series versus Houston with Wednesday's 8-4 triumph behind co-ace Chris Carpenter. The righty lasted 7 1/3 innings and yielded a pair of runs on four hits and three walks with three strikeouts.

Albert Pujols went 3-for-5 with a three-run homer and Felipe Lopez scored twice and drove in a run for the Cardinals. Allen Craig and Yadier Molina both had two hits and an RBI in the win.

"There are not to many ballclubs that can respond the way we did," Pujols said after the Cards remained a half-game behind Cincinnati for NL Central bragging rights. "Getting beat [Tuesday] night, 18-4. We scored four runs in the first inning and we scored three in the second inning. That is huge."

Florida ended July with three straight wins, but has dropped all four games in August. It was just swept in three games by the visiting Philadelphia Phillies and is coming off last night's 5-4 setback in 10 innings.

There was a controversial call in the ninth inning, when the Marlins' Gaby Sanchez ripped a hard ground ball down the third base line that was ruled foul by third base umpire Bob Davidson despite replays showing it bounced over the bag. Marlins All-Star shortstop Hanley Ramirez was on second base with one out and would have easily scored had the hit been called fair.

Marlins manager Edwin Rodriguez shared his sentiments on what could have been the game-winning hit.

"I've been in this game for 30 years, and I have the highest respect for the umpires," Rodriguez said on the team's site. "That was the worst call I've ever seen in my 30 years in baseball. That ball was a fair ball by six inches. He was never even looking at the play."

Sanchez finished with two RBI while Logan Morrison and Donnie Murphy each knocked in a run for the Marlins, who are nine games off the pace in the NL East.

Chris Volstad started for Florida and did not record a decision after he yielded two runs and eight hits over 5 2/3 innings. Will Ohman was saddled with the loss for surrendering Carlos Ruiz's home run to lead off the top of the 10th inning.

The Marlins, who are mired in their longest skid of the season, will look to Ricky Nolasco tonight against St. Louis. Nolasco has been on fire as of late, having won three straight and seven of his last eight starts. In Saturday's 6-3 win at San Diego, Nolasco held the division-leading Padres to three runs in 8 1/3 innings and posted seven strikeouts for the second straight outing. He has fanned at least six batters in eight straight starts.

Nolasco, a right-hander, is 12-7 in 22 starts to go along with a 4.28 earned run average this season. He is still in search of his first career win against the Cardinals, having gone 0-2 in five career games (four starts) in this series.

The Marlins and Cardinals split a two-game series back in May, but St. Louis has won four of the past seven meetings between the two clubs.

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MySportsbook.com: New College Football Clock Rules Examined

Coaches and bettors alike are desperate to make sense of the new time-keeping rules on the NCAA gridiron. One of the big stories to come out of the Ohio State-Texas clash last weekend was Texas coach Mack Brown's criticism of the NCAA's new clock rules that are intended to shorten the duration of college football games, therefore affecting college football betting.

"They scored with six minutes left and the game was over before we had a chance to do anything," Brown told ESPN.com. "I really hope whoever made these changes will go back and look them over."

Sure, it might be sour grapes; the Buckeyes thoroughly trounced the defending national champion Longhorns 24-7. However, Brown isn't alone in giving the changes their due thought. Bettors are also wondering about them, albeit for a completely different reason. Most experts agree that the changes will result in games being shortened by anywhere from 10 to 20 plays. The obvious consequence is lower scores, with more time rolling off the clock during changes of possession. (The Ohio State-Texas game flew well under the total of 52.)

According to research at the online sportsbook MySportsbook.com, more than 18 plays a game disappeared last weekend into thin air. That's a 10-percent reduction. In 2005, a typical game had 168.58 plays. For 2007 already, it's down to 150.26.

As a result, teams combined to gain an average of about 100 fewer yards a game last weekend versus the 2005 openers. Scoring was also down by about 4.5 points (attention Las Vegas sports lines).

Of course, oddsmakers were able to adjust to the changes before the season started. Proof of that came as the over went a balanced 8-9 at My Sportsbook on Saturday.

Other angles to consider:A shorter game should theoretically result in shorter lines. Whereas Team A might have been a 14-point favorite in a 168-play game (last year), if there are 10 percent less snaps in 2007, the line should also be reduced by 10 percent (to 13 or 12.5). Of course, this is an over-simplification of the matter, but something to keep in mind.
Less possessions means a better chance the game will be decided by three or seven points. For example, what might have been a 20-10 final score in 2005 may end at

17-10 in 2007. Granted, a 24-17 game last year might end at 21-17 these days, but the former - a three- or seven-point advantage being preserved as opposed to created - is the most likely scenario.

*UPDATE* - Sept. 25, 2007

New Clock Rules Boon for online bookmakers

By adjusting the time-keeping rules to shorten the duration of college football games, the NCAA hoped to make its product more enjoyable for the fans. While the NCAA's success in this regard is still up for debate, bookmakers couldn't be happier with the results.

"We are seeing a massive jump in college football betting," noted the MySportsbook.com management team. "With all the early Saturday games (12 a.m. ET) ending before the second wave begins (3:30 p.m. ET) - something that didn't always happen before the changes - bettors are now able to re-invest their winnings from the morning session in the afternoon games."

While not all bettors will choose to roll over their winnings, it doesn't take much for an impact to be seen on the bottom line. "Not all of the millions of dollars in morning payouts get re-bet. In fact, it's probably only 10 to 20 percent," noted the sportsbook management team. "Still, the increased football betting lines window will create a ton of growth for us over the course of the season."

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Betting Football

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Is there such a thing as a trap game in the NFL?

I once asked that question to Pete Korner, who at the time was office manager and a senior linesmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants.

Korner almost ripped my head off. There is no such thing as a trap game, he loudly berated me. It’s a myth. The numbers are made using power ratings, he said.

There are trap games, though. They just might not be what you think. The perception is of a good team, say Philadelphia, laying a small number against New Orleans.

Using the highly-respected power ranking from The Gold Sheet, you’d find the Eagles with a power rating of 4 and the Saints at 8. When you factor the game being played in New Orleans, you could see why the line opened so short at less than a field goal.

For some, this makes it enticing to take the Eagles. That’s not a real trap game, though.

A real trap game, says professional gambler Dave Malinsky, is thinking you’re getting value betting a bad team, which brings us to the Oakland Raiders-Denver Broncos matchup.

The Raiders are +15 in this long-standing division rivalry. Denver is on a short week having dispatched Baltimore Monday. However, the Raiders haven’t covered the spread their last 10 games.

Many bettors don’t trust the Raiders to give a full effort. Few think much of Art Shell and his Oakland’s coaching staff.

So oddsmakers have to do something to make Oakland attractive if they hope to get equal action.

Now Malinsky is a value shopper. But he won’t touch the Raiders even getting more than two touchdowns.

“I try to eliminate the undisciplined, unfocused teams because they’re the ones most likely to suffer the bad beats,” he said.

Near the top of Malinsky’s list of stay-away teams is the Miami Dolphins, who have yet to cover a spread this season.

“Whatever you think of Nick Saban, you have to look at the penalties and turnovers,” Malinsky said.

It’s easy to point out the Dolphins failed to get the money this past week against New England because Olindo Mare missed a field goal and had another field goal blocked. But even though the Dolphins outgained the Patriots, 283-213, they committed eight penalties.

Bad teams not only cost themselves victories, but pointspread covers as well. The Arizona Cardinals and Green Bay Packers are two more examples.

The Cardinals couldn’t have been in a better position this past Sunday, up 14-0 at home against a mediocre Kansas City Chiefs squad. But they couldn’t hold it. The Packers got a push against St. Louis, but also could have won losing by three when Brett Favre fumbled at the St. Louis 11-yard line with 44 seconds left.

“The Packers were in a position to beat Philadelphia, too,” Malinsky said. “But they couldn’t even cover double digits.

“These teams just make mistakes and it costs you … they always will look good from a value standpoint. They really will. But that’s the trap.”

Houston and Tennessee rank among the six-worst teams. Malinsky wouldn’t be afraid to take either of these teams, however, if the price were high enough.

The Texans are bad, Malinsky said, but they have some discipline. The Titans showed they could not only come up with an outstanding game plan, but execute it as well, losing by one to the Colts on the road as an 18 ?-point underdog this past Sunday.

“Jeff Fisher is a worker,” Malinsky said of the Titans coach. “I’m not sure how hard Art Shell wants to work when he gets out of bed.”

Fisher, though, could be out as Tennessee coach after this season. Is he still worth backing in the right spot, with the right price, as a lame duck coach?

“It’s in his nature to keep working hard and not worry about any possible lame duck status,” Malinsky said. “He’s coaching for his resume.”

Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting lines.